Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
